Monday, November 9, 2009

What Are the Chances? Probability Made Clear

What Are the Chances? Probability Made Clear

What Are the Chances? Probability Made Clear | 3.2 GB

Taught by Michael Starbird | The University of Texas at Austin | Ph.D., University of Wisconsin at Madison | $199.95
AVI | 192 kbps | 720 x 480 | 12 lectures, 30 minutes/lecture

Life is full of probabilities. Every time you choose something to eat, you deal with probable effects on your health. Every time you drive your car, probability gives a small but measurable chance that you will have an accident. Every time you buy a stock, play poker, or make plans based on a weather forecast, you are consigning your fate to probability.

What Are the Chances? Probability Made Clear helps you understand the random factors that lurk behind almost everything—from the chance combinations of genes that produced you to the high odds that the waiting time at a bus stop will be longer than the average time between buses if they operate on a random schedule.

In 12 stimulating half-hour lectures, you will explore the fundamental concepts and fascinating applications of probability.

High Probability You Will Enjoy This Course

Professor Michael Starbird knows the secret of making numbers come alive to non-mathematicians: he picks intriguing, useful, and entertaining examples. Here are some that you will explore in your investigation of probability as a reasoning tool:

* When did the most recent common ancestor of all humans live? Applying probabilistic methods to the observed mutation rate of human genetic material, scientists have traced our lineage to a female ancestor who lived about 150,000 years ago.
* How much should you pay for a stock option? Options trading used to be tantamount to gambling until about 1970, when two economists, Fischer Black and Myron Scholes, found a method to quantify those risks and to create a rational model for options pricing.
* What do you do on third down with long yardage? In football, a pass is the obvious play on third down with many yards to go. Of course, the other team knows that. Probability and game theory help decide when to run with the ball to keep your opponent guessing.